Syria: Who's winning?

 The situation in Syria is now dragging into its 3rd year. On one side you have Bashar-Al-Assads goverment, supported by Iran and Hezbollah on the other the rebels.


The government: The government seems to be in control of a lot of urban areas, major cities and the coastline. This is good for them because they have a steady stream of arms coming from Iran, Russia and according to some reports North Korea. Current figures suggest that they have between 150,000 and 180,000 in the Syrian Arab Army and the same number in militias and other anti-rebel factions.
The army is reasonable well equipped and they enjoy near 100% air superiority.

Iran has troops on the ground about 1000 "advisers" this may or may not include fighter pilots. Seen as Syria is one of Iran's few allies, they are certainly interested in keeping the Assad regime in place.

Russia on the other hand does not have troops on the ground but, keeps a steady stream of ammuntion and equipment from aircraft to tanks, a lot of soviet era equipment is in use by Assad's forces.

Hezbollah( Lebanon) officially supports the Assad government and has sent around 3000-5000 armed fighters into the country and we crucial in re-taking Al-Quasyr.




The rebels:
Whilst the rebels are around 8 different factions, the west recognizes the Free Syrian Army as the rightful government of Syria. The FSA's main contingent comes from the spate of mutinies at the start of the war and continues to be fed by Assad deserters and volunteers. They are mainly armed with captured weaponry, although countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia  have armed them, they are poorly equipped. Their numbers seem  to be around 50,000 making them the largest and most diplomatically supported of the rebel groups.

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL):
These are the Al- Qaeda  linked rebels that Assad constantly says are the real rebels. Like Gaddafi before him he believes that If he says Al-Qaeda is fighting him, the west will support him. ISIL is a very extremist group and are behind the recent capture of Fallujah in Iraq. These number  25,000 although are fighting a huge battle in Iraq at the same time so are stretched thin.

The Islamic Front:
These are the 2nd largest group and are Mujaheddin, Islamic volunteers from around the world. These are extremists and pose the main threat to the FSA should inter-opposition fighting break out. Again armed with captured weaponry however not officially supplied by any state.

The Kurdish supreme committee (DBK):
The Kurds have been fighting Turkey for independence for many years. The see the fighting in Syria as their chance to carve out a home for themselves. Whilst not officially aligned with the rebels as the rebels refuse to acknowledge them or recognize them as a group. They are however fighting a common enemy Assad. As you can see by the map below the Yellow fields near Turkey are Kurdish controlled and are actively engaged in fighting around Hasakah.


Current situation:

As you can see by the map, which is about 8 weeks old  Yellow is the Kurds, Green various rebel groups, Red the government and Blue is contested.


To conclude:
The war will go on, peace talks have not worked and niether side is in a position to attack the other. I think in the spring about April or May is when you're going to see offensives start. I dont think the rebels can win, but then again I dont think the government can either.  So unless someone intervenes, I can see this dragging on for at least another 2 years.